The Boston Celtics land in Atlanta after a stunning and
disappointing loss to the Orlando Magic in which they were outscored 35-22 in
the final quarter. This sets up an
excellent fade situation for the Celtics, as they have to face their toughest
rival this season, the 29-15 Atlanta Hawks.
The two keys to this situation are the schedules. Atlanta just split a pair in a short Texas
road trip (beating Houston, losing to San Antonio), while the 29-14 Celtics
play after a disheartening loss and travel.
However, Atlanta last played on Wednesday and should be well
rested. The Celtics, 4-4 on the second
day of a back-to-back, are not impressive, with two of those wins being against
New Jersey and Minnesota, the two worst teams in the NBA. Worse yet, Minnesota was a two-point
squeaker.
Atlanta also plays tonight at Philips Arena, where it
carries a stellar 18-5 record. The
Hawks defeated the Celtics 93-85 on Jan. 8 at Philips earlier this year, as
well as winning twice in Boston. What
is fascinating to me (disclosure, I'm a Hawks season ticket holder) is that the
home crowd "advantage" is so much there for the Hawks as other teams. In spite of their record, and an incredible
venue in Philips, they only rank 20th out of 30 teams in total
attendance).
Also worth noting is how the Hawks rebound from a
loss. They have a 10-4 record in the
game following a loss, so are an excellent bounce back team. They only have two losing streaks on the
year, one of two games (at New Orleans, vs. Orlando) and one of four games
(Cleveland twice, one a highly disputed loss, at New York, at Miami).
With all these schedule factors in mind, I believe it's a
clear choice as to which side needs to be played.
Looking at player statistics, Kevin Garnett returns for
Boston. Last night, he played 33
minutes, but notched only 6 points.
According to 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/0910/0910BOS.HTM)
Garnett has the best +/- of his team, with a +7.9 (as of 1/25). The Hawks have 3 players whose +/- rating
surpasses that in starters Josh Smith, Al Horford and Joe Johnson. (http://www.82games.com/0910/0910ATL.HTM)
The Hawks, while being a "surprise team" to many should
really not be considered as such. Mike
Woodson's team has improved in record every year he's coached the squad, and
basketball-reference's Pythagorean W-L actually has them under performing, with a 30-14 record (http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html#wins_pyth).
With basketball-reference's win probability listing
Atlanta as a 61% favorite, (which would translate to a -156 Moneyline), this
does not take into account each team's specific recent travel schedule, nor the
fact that Boston has a look-ahead game against the Lakers Sunday at home.
In
the crunch, Atlanta is also a good free throw shooting team, shooting 76% on
the year vs. 74% for their opponents.
Atlanta's primary ball handlers late in games are better the average,
with Jamal Crawford shooting at 85% and Joe Johnson shooting at 83%.
With
all these factors, and Atlanta looking for the season sweep against Boston, I
feel confident in wagering on both the spread and the Moneyline.
ATLANTA HAWKS - 3.5 (-110)
(THE GREEK/BOOKMAKER)
ATLANTA HAWKS -169 (PINNACLE)